METHODOLOGY
How Forecast.travel builds trust.
Every score has a source. Every source has a date. Every uncertainty has a label.
01 · DATA SOURCES
02 · CONFIDENCE METHODOLOGY
Certainty must be earned.
HIGH (>85%): Multiple consistent, recently updated sources. N > 100.
MEDIUM (60–85%): Partial data, conflict, or data older than 90 days.
LOW (<60%): Limited sources, old data, or active conflict.
03 · SOURCE CLASSIFICATIONS
LIVE DATAReal-time API feed. Verified and source-attributed.
CALCULATEDComposite score derived deterministically from inputs.
SEASONALHistorical pattern from prior years.
AI PREDICTIONGenerated by a model. Treat as guidance.
USER GENERATEDSubmitted by travelers. Upload date verified only.
04 · WHAT WE DON’T DO
✗ No affiliate or commission relationships
✗ No paid placements or sponsored destination content
✗ No incentivized or fake reviews
✗ No fabricated confidence scores
✗ We never pick the optimistic source to resolve a conflict
05 · CONTRADICTIONS
When sources conflict, both are shown. You decide.
LIVE DATA Government advisory: normal precautions nationally.
USER GENERATED Traveler reports: increased petty theft in one district.